Immediate stimulus package for manufacturers should lead measures to boost investment and save jobs
- Output plunges to lowest level in 30 year survey history
- UK and export orders at lows comparable to financial crisis
- Employment and investment suffer significant cutbacks
- Just over 10% of companies operating at full capacity
- Industry forecast to contract by almost 10% in 2020
Britain’s manufacturers are calling for a National Recovery Plan, including an immediate stimulus package, to boost investment and help save jobs on the back of a major survey showing that output in the sector plunged to a record low as the full impact of the crisis hit home.
The Make UK/BDO Manufacturing Outlook Q2 survey comes on the back of the historic fall in GDP and shows the balance for output reached the lowest level in the thirty year history of the survey, surpassing the previous record lows seen during the worst of the financial crisis. Looking forward the survey shows the prospect for the next quarter and the rest of the year looks little better.
Furthermore, both UK and export orders plunged and while the furlough scheme appears to have mitigated the worst impact of immediate redundancies, evidence suggests that without government intervention to free up firms to invest again this has merely delayed large scale redundancies in addition to those already announced in the aerospace and automotive sectors.
Given the outlook for the rest of the year and into 2021 Make UK is calling on the Government to work with business and other key stakeholders from across the UK on a National Recovery Plan. In the short term this should begin with an immediate stimulus package beginning with a Business Rates holiday for manufacturers similar to that granted to the retail sector earlier this year. Make UK believes this would be the single most important measure the Chancellor could introduce having the quickest impact for companies of all sizes and across all sectors.
This should be accompanied by other immediate measures including a National Infrastructure Strategy with a commitment to immediate projects to help supply chains, a car scrappage scheme and incentives to invest in digital technology and skills. Make UK also re-iterated its previous call for Government help for recapitalisation to direct support at key sectors and companies, in particular to allow companies to access capital to service debt incurred during the lockdown.
According to the survey output reached a record low of -56%, while both UK and export orders fell to -52%, comparable to the levels seen during the worst of the financial crisis.
Export orders had turned negative last quarter for the first time since 2016 showing that demand in major markets was already slipping, a situation the Covid crisis has exacerbated.
Alarmingly the prospects for the next quarter appear little better despite the easing of lockdowns across Europe and Asia with the forward looking indicator of output for the next three months at -42%, the worst ever predicted in the survey’s history. Whilst a slight improvement is in store for total orders in the next quarter at -41% it remains an extremely distressed balance historically.
All sectors suffered a severe drop in output with those closely connected to the automotive, aerospace and construction sectors suffering very badly. Especially concerning were the levels reached by those sectors connected with investment in capital and automation, Machinery Equipment -70%, Electrical Equipment -67% and Electronics -54% all of whom serve as a proxy for investment in new technologies across the wider economy. Overall, just 11.7% of companies said they were operating at full capacity.
As with the impact on output and orders, both employment and investment levels were cut back significantly. The employment balance fell to -22% indicating that many companies are already going ahead with redundancies and, without the Job Retention Scheme, it is highly likely the employment figures would have reached the worst levels in the survey’s history. The likely pattern for job cuts for the rest of the year is highlighted by the employment balance accelerating further in the next three months to -36%.
Having appeared to turn a corner at the start of the year after the greater certainty provided by the election and leaving the EU, the picture for investment has now gone into reverse falling to a balance of -26%.
Given the impact on the sector, Make UK is now forecasting that manufacturing will contract by almost 10% this year (-9.4%) before clawing some of it back in 2021 (+6.2%).
GDP is forecast to fall by -7.8% for 2020 before recovering by almost the same amount in 2021 at +7.2%
The survey of 309 companies was carried out between 29 April 2020 - 20 May 2020.
Full report can be seen here